Will Nintendo Cause A Video Games Industry Crash?

Will Nintendo, With The Release Of Wii 2 Cause Another Video Games Crash?

That’s the question that Gameplayer.com is asking, and one that I think is pretty easy to answer. No. I could just leave it at that, but I’ll explain myself since Gameplayer took the time to write a lengthy article on the topic.

“The Wii is on fire, and no amount of bad “shovelware” press is going to put it out. Well over 40 million units have been sold already (and that figure is climbing faster than a diesel-fuelled flame) allowing Nintendo to send smoke signals to the competing camps of Sony and Microsoft that simply reads, “suckers.” But while Nintendo are bathing in the cash at the moment, their monumental success could be setting the games industry up for a nasty crash, sometime early next decade.”

This is the paragraph that generally sums up how Clint McCredie feels about the topic of Nintendo bringing about another video game crash. Which, according to him could come with the release on the Nintendo Wii 2. If this were a real life debate, I would probably counter his claim by asking if he was taking medication and if he had any extra for me.

After reading the entire article, I’ve found a few main points he tries to drive home to defend his stance; and are the following:

- The Nintendo Wii is a toy, and a fad much like Furby, and the Rubik’s Cube

- The Nintendo Wii 2 will fail to impress consumers enough to invest more money into a new console.

- Nintendo will begin to dominate publisher’s, and developer’s time and energy which will take away money from the PS3 and Xbox 360

- Nintendo, stealing the resources from Sony and Microsoft, then will have everyone’s support for the Wii 2. Then when the Wii 2 fails, we’ll see another video game crash.

- The overall state of the global economy will cause developers, and publishers to go under.

Nintendo Wii: A Toy, or a Video Game System?

First, in what world, or dimension can you even compare the Nintendo Wii to the offerings of the Furby, and Rubik’s Cube? I understand that the Nintendo Wii is the hot item to have, but is the ‘fad crowd’ really the install base that is making the system successful?

I think in order to see how the Nintendo Wii is being played, and who is enjoying it you should probably look to software sales for a clear marker. So, what games are being bought, and who is more than likely buying them?

Mario Kart: Wii was the #1 selling game of 2008, besides Wii Sports. Granted, Mario Kart: Wii isn’t the most action packed, epic questing game out on the market but it’s far from being shovelware, or completely marketed to non-traditional gamers. I think it’s safe to say that Mario Kart: Wii is a game that attracts all sorts of gamers which is why it performed so well. You have the avid Mario Kart veterans who’ve been karting around since the Ghost Valley days. Then you have the non-traditional gamers who could relate to the idea of a driving game, with the idea of using the Wii remote as a steering wheel.

This sort of mesh between Nintendo fanboys, Mario Kart fanboys, and new console owners really backed the success of Mario Kart: Wii. I think it’s also a fine example of the kinds of games that developers should be looking to make. A game based on solid gameplay, that a large audience can enjoy. It’s easier to talk about, then to actually do though. But I think The Conduit will be the next game to pull it off.

Will People Want The Wii 2?

The next point is a little harder to argue, as it’s hard to predict the future and say if the Nintendo Wii 2 will impress or not. I think that Nintendo definitely has an uphill battle in this regard though. With the success of the Wii, due mostly to its new ways of playing video games, and price will be very hard to replicate.

I really hate soothsaying, because it’s all non-sense at this point because no one knows what Nintendo will do. One point that I do agree with the author on, is that if Nintendo rests on the laurels of the original Wii to try and sell the Wii sequel it would probably setup for failure.

I honestly believe that Nintendo won’t tread down this road though. Looking at the Nintendo DS, and the Nintendo Wii, it was innovation and change that sparked their success. Nintendo had to learn the drastic lesson of evolving, instead of revolutionizing with their third place finish during the Gamecube era. I do believe that Nintendo won’t make that mistake again, and I believe we will see some huge improvements and changes with their next console.

Only Shovelware Will Rule The Day, and destroy the PS3/Xbox 360?

The writer of this article really has quite an imagination. Apparently, the Nintendo Wii has setup this system to where success is only found with releasing cheap, craptastic games. The games you find at bargain bins at Wal-Mart, and generally are related to monster trucks, or mini-game compilations. I will say that there are quite a bit of games like that out there, but is that what it takes in order to be successful. Again, let’s look at some more software numbers for evidence.

0 Wii Sports 23.8m
1 Mario Kart Wii 13.64m
2 Wii Fit 13.05m
3 Wii Play 11.00m
4 Super Smash Brothers Brawl 8.31m
5 Grand Theft Auto IV X360 6.64m
6 New Super Mario Brothers 5.53m
7 Brain Training DS 5.45m
8 Grand Theft Auto IV PS3 5.25m
9 Mario Kart DS DS 4.76m
10 Nintendogs 4.52m
11 More Brain Training 4.48m
12 Gears of War 2 4.14m
13 Call of Duty: World at War 4.13m
14 Pokemon Diamond + Pearl 3.97m
15 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 3.97m
16 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 3.85m
17 Metal Gear Solid 4 3.75m
18 Super Mario Galaxy 3.34m
19 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 2.88m
20 Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G 2.70m

Looking at that list, I really don’t see anything that I’d consider shovelware. In fact, I think that if the list proves anything, that releasing quality games still trumps releasing games based on console popularity. I will say that Nintendo might attract more attention from publishers, and developers but it will take more than just making a game for the Nintendo Wii to be successful.

One game you can look at for an example is de Blob. It wasn’t a Top 20 seller last year, but sold a solid amount of around 175k, and it was a game released towards the end of the year. Why did it perform so well? It’s not really a game I’d recommend to a new gamer, nor was it a game I’d bring up in a party atmosphere. It sold well, because it was a quality title that was fun and you could tell the developers took time to create.

To me this is the argument with the least amount of merit that McCredie tries to make. Having a successful game has nothing to do with what console it’s released on. It doesn’t hurt either, but a game’s success is found by quality, not console affiliation. Just look at World of Warcraft, that game is on a PC which according to some people is a dying form of game platform. Yet it has a user install base of around 11 million last time I checked. It succeeded due to being a quality product.

People say that Nintendo is “changing” the game, but I say the more things change, the more they stay the same. People want quality, pure and simple. If you’re not delivering in that regard then you can expect slumping sales, it’s just that simple.

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All of these points are arguments made for how Nintendo could cause another video game crash. This idea is so (to quote Princess Bride) inconceivable. Even if Nintendo’s next system isn’t as successful as the Wii, it will just force the market to move on, it won’t destroy it.

Comparing the climate of the video game world, now to the gaming crash of 1983 is apples and oranges. There’s not just ‘gamers’ anymore, there’s different demographics of gamers. There’s people who only like certain types of games and consoles, with their own separate communities. With that kind of diversity, there’s no way that video games can collapse again.

The only way I see video games collapsing is if the economy continues to struggle. This argument is kind of pointless though, because if the markets keep on the way they are then video games will be the least of our worries. Until such time though, I think it’s safe to say video games will be here to stay .